NanoMarkets,
a leading industry analyst firm based here, today announced it has released
an updated analysis of the thin-film photovoltaics (TFPV) markets. The firm
projects that after a few lean years in 2009 and 2010 for the TFPV business
higher growth rates will return in 2011. The firm’s new analysis and forecast
projects revenues of $4.6 billion in 2011 that will grow to just over $14 billion
in 2015. Additional details about the report are available at www.nanomarkets.net.
Key Insights:
According to NanoMarkets, several factors are combining to make the near-term
prospects for TFPV less rosy than had once been hoped. The global economic situation
is having wide ranging impacts on the thin-film solar business. The recession
in the construction industry will dampen demand for solar panels in 2009 and
2010, depressed oil prices will make it harder to make the case for solar and
other forms of alternative energies and competition for capital will limit funding
for R&D. Furthermore, the shortage of crystalline silicon that was one of
the initial drivers for TFPV has been resolved. Add in the capacity that is
coming on line to meet expected demand and the market certainly has factors
to overcome.
Nonetheless, NanoMarkets does not believe that the thin-film solar business
will evaporate. The unique combination of flexibility, low weight and low cost
promised by TFPV will enable the technology to continue to penetrate the solar
market as a whole. First Solar has already demonstrated how commercially successful
its thin-film CdTe cell technology can be and NanoMarkets also expects to see
a major ramp up in CIGS solar panels in the early 2011 timeframe. Indeed, as
CIGS begins to fulfill its mission of combining high efficiencies with all the
advantages of TFPV, NanoMarkets expects firms that are now focused on other
materials platforms to switch to CIGS.