As India’s vehicle fleet expands and battery demand climbs, researchers are tracking how changes in battery chemistries, mineral availability, and end-of-life batteries could reshape the country’s EV material needs through 2060.
Paper: Electric vehicle deployment in India: implications for critical material demand and the role of recycling through 2060. AI-generated abstract conceptual image created using ChatGPT/OpenAI
In a recent research article published in the journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling, researchers report a detailed analysis of India’s electric vehicle expansion and its implications for critical material demand and recycling strategies through 2060.
India’s transportation sector is changing as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows rapidly. With one cited estimate putting the on-road vehicle fleet at about 494 million by 2050, up from roughly 226 million in 2023, and the study’s own model projecting 573 million vehicles in 2050, the study projects steep growth in demand for EV batteries and critical materials.
The country’s transportation system, heavily reliant on petroleum fuels, accounted for about 13% of national greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, with more than 90% of those emissions coming from on-road vehicles. India is promoting EV adoption through programs such as FAME and the Production Linked Incentive scheme.
The country also faces supply risks for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite. These materials are key components of lithium-ion batteries, and India is almost entirely dependent on imports of lithium, cobalt, and nickel, creating vulnerabilities tied to geopolitical risks and global market fluctuations.
The study examines how India's evolving vehicle mix, battery technologies, and recycling pathways affect demand for these critical materials through 2060.
Key Insights on Critical Materials
The research employs a bottom-up model that categorizes India’s on-road vehicle fleet into five primary groups, including light-duty passenger vehicles, two- and three-wheelers, buses, and trucks.
Within these categories, the model covers internal combustion engines fueled by gasoline or diesel, hybrid electric vehicles, and fully battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). The full model also includes CNG, LPG, plug-in hybrids, hydrogen-fueled vehicles, and fuel-cell vehicles where relevant. The model integrates sales projections, vehicle stock rollover, battery chemistry trends, and battery capacity growth trajectories, allowing an assessment of material demand across multiple scenarios.
Under the study’s baseline scenario, EV battery demand rises from roughly 0.8 GWh in 2020 to close to 965 GWh by 2060. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries account for the largest share of battery demand, while sodium-ion batteries gradually gain share over time.
Battery growth increases demand for several materials, with annual net lithium demand rising to approximately 45 kilotons by 2060 and annual graphite demand to about 783 kilotons in the baseline scenario. Net nickel demand peaks in the early 2050s and then falls, while gross cobalt and manganese demand peaks around mid-century; recycling further lowers their net demand.
The level of EV deployment has a large effect on material demand. For example, under the study’s upper-bound “100% EV deployment” scenario, which phases out internal combustion engines in light-duty passenger vehicles, two- and three-wheelers, and buses but retains partial electric deployment for trucks, lithium’s cumulative net demand reaches 3 million tons by 2060, about 12 times the business-as-usual level.
While nickel and manganese reserves in India are sufficient to meet projected demand across the scenarios examined, lithium is more constrained domestically because India has no confirmed reserves, and its identified resources are not commercially viable at present. India also has no confirmed cobalt reserves. The lack of confirmed lithium and cobalt reserves increases dependence on imports. These comparisons refer to in-ground resources and reserves and do not establish whether India has the mining, processing, or refining capacity needed to turn them into usable supply.
Recycling can reduce some of these supply pressures. The study’s recycling module captures end-of-life battery flows and manufacturing scrap, as well as secondary-use pathways for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese. Graphite and hard/soft carbon are not included in the recycling calculations.
Material recovery from recycled batteries is projected to reduce cumulative lithium demand by up to 54% under baseline EV adoption, avoiding up to about 800 kilotons of primary lithium extraction. For annual demand in 2060, recycled material offsets about 81–83% of gross cobalt and manganese requirements. On a cumulative basis, demand for those two metals can be almost fully offset by the late 2050s. The Indian recycling sector remains in its early stages, constrained by technological limitations, regulatory enforcement challenges, and underdeveloped reverse logistics.
Material Demand and Recycling Outlook
Domestic availability varies sharply by material. For lithium, the gap between identified resources and commercially viable supply could prolong reliance on imports, exposing the EV sector to market volatility and geopolitical tensions. Global critical mineral production and refining are also concentrated in a relatively small number of countries, including China, underscoring the need for more diverse supply sources and further domestic exploration.
Graphite presents a different problem: India’s graphite reserves are projected to fall short after 2040 even under the baseline EV pathway, though its broader in-ground graphite resources are much larger. The paper notes that synthetic graphite could supply part of future demand. Its model does not include recycling of graphite or hard/soft carbon.
Recycling outcomes are sensitive to collection and recovery assumptions. In the model, lithium recovery is set at 90%, while nickel, cobalt, and manganese recovery is set at 98%. The calculations also rely on assumptions about recycling rates, battery life, secondary use, and the timing of end-of-life battery flows.
Implications for India’s EV Supply
This study shows how strongly India’s projected material requirements depend on assumptions about EV adoption, battery chemistry, battery size, and recycling performance.
The authors caution that these are scenario-based estimates rather than fixed forecasts. The model uses global-average battery chemistry data when India-specific data are unavailable, assumes fixed material intensities for each chemistry, and simplifies battery life and replacement behavior. Changes in any of these assumptions could alter the scale and timing of future material demand.
The analysis suggests that India’s exposure to future supply constraints will reflect the pace of EV adoption, battery technology choices, vehicle battery size, recycling performance, supply diversification, and the development of domestic material-processing capacity.