In a recent paper posted on the SSRN preprint* server, researchers Nelson Oppong (University of Edinburgh and Rhodes University) and Mohammad Amir Anwar (University of Edinburgh) examined the growing gap between global clean-energy and decarbonization goals and the realities of mineral extraction in Africa.
They introduced the concept of the "Tesla Paradox," explaining how the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) increases demand for critical battery minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and manganese, while also deepening dependence on mineral extraction and its associated environmental damage and governance challenges in mineral-rich African countries. The term serves as a heuristic for interconnected clean-energy systems and production networks rather than describing Tesla's supply chain alone.
While EVs reduce tailpipe emissions, the paper notes that their broader climate benefits depend partly on mineral extraction, battery manufacturing, and the carbon intensity of charging electricity. It argues that many of the environmental and social costs of the clean energy transition are shifted onto the countries that supply these minerals.
Critical Minerals: The Backbone of EVs
Modern low-carbon transportation relies on lithium-ion batteries, which require substantial amounts of minerals, including cobalt, lithium, graphite, nickel, copper, and manganese. A battery-electric vehicle contains more than 200 kilograms of minerals and metals, compared to about 32 kilograms in a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle. Meeting the Paris Agreement's 2°C target will therefore require a sixfold increase in demand for key minerals by 2050, according to evidence cited by the authors.
Extracting these minerals is highly resource-intensive. Mining methods such as open-pit mining and evaporative brine extraction can involve intensive water and land use, carbon emissions, tailings, and contamination risks. As demand for battery materials continues to grow, mining activities are expanding across resource-rich developing countries, potentially increasing environmental pressures and creating challenges for sustainable resource management.
The Global Supply Chain of Battery Minerals
Researchers employed a qualitative and interpretive approach to examine interdisciplinary scholarship, policy documents, institutional reports, and secondary data. Utilizing the Global Production Networks (GPN) framework, they examined how minerals move from extraction through processing and manufacturing to consumption, and how economic gains and environmental and political risks are distributed along the chain.
The study specifically focused on three key areas: economic value capture, environmental impacts, and governance and political risks. It drew on policy examples, including South Africa's Electric Vehicle White Paper, Ghana's National Electric Vehicle Policy, and Zimbabwe's restrictions on raw lithium exports, to understand how African countries participate in battery supply chains. The authors cited evidence that over 80% of global lithium-ion battery manufacturing is concentrated in China, while value-added manufacturing remains limited in mineral-exporting countries.
Disparities in Economic Benefits and Environmental Risks
The analysis argues that significant gaps in economic value, environmental sustainability, and governance models mark Africa's important role in the global clean energy supply chain. Although Africa holds approximately 30% of global mineral reserves, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for nearly 70% of global cobalt production, most high-value activities, such as mineral refining, precursor production, and battery manufacturing, take place overseas. As a result, many African countries remain dependent on raw mineral exports and receive only a small share of the economic benefits.
The rapid expansion of mining has been associated with serious environmental damage. Mining for critical minerals is linked to deforestation, biodiversity loss, water contamination, and soil degradation across sensitive environments, including the Congo Basin. As demand for EVs rises, many environmental costs of the clean energy transition are borne by mining communities rather than end-use markets.
The study also identified major governance challenges, including opaque contracts and limited institutional capacity, which reduce transparency and limit the fair management of mineral resources. Cases cited in the paper associate mineral extraction and other clean-energy projects with forced evictions, displacement risks, and disputes over land rights, environmental protection, and resource governance. The authors further connect weak governance and geopolitical competition with inequality, conflict, unfair decision-making, political legitimacy, and democratic quality.
Industrial Growth and Local Processing
This research has significant implications for battery manufacturing, mineral processing, and global supply chains. Instead of exporting raw materials, resource-rich countries can create greater economic value by expanding domestic processing and refining, and by participating in higher-value manufacturing. These investments can strengthen local industries and build technical expertise, higher-value industrial capacity, and regional specialization.
Although Africa remains the least-adopting EV region globally due to high costs, infrastructure gaps, market mismatches, and regulatory barriers, the paper also highlights the expansion of EV assembly, battery-swapping services, electric buses, and two-wheelers across African markets. The growing use of electric two-wheelers and buses in East Africa, alongside battery-swapping services for motorcycle taxis, illustrates how electrification is evolving to meet regional transportation needs. Expanding local battery assembly can broaden industrial participation while creating opportunities for technical training and local manufacturing growth. The authors emphasize long-term financing, regional coordination, and the inclusion of artisanal and small-scale producers in evolving systems for tracking mineral origins and governing supply chains.
Recommendations for Sustainable Energy Transitions
In summary, the clean energy transition presents both opportunities and challenges for African countries. While demand for critical minerals could support industrial growth, current supply chains continue to favor raw material exports over local value creation. Addressing the "Tesla Paradox" will require greater investment in mineral processing, battery manufacturing, transparent governance, and strong environmental standards.
Future policy and research should focus on building more equitable supply chains and helping local communities benefit from mineral development. Meaningfully including artisanal and small-scale producers in formal supply-chain oversight, strengthening environmental oversight, and supporting local processing and manufacturing can help make mineral extraction more sustainable. A more equitable supply chain could contribute to global decarbonization while creating greater local economic benefits. Aligning mineral extraction with economic growth, environmental protection, and fair value-sharing could enable the clean energy transition to benefit resource-rich countries and the wider global economy.
*Important notice: SSRN publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive or treated as established information.
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